En kommentar om hur det kan vara så att det finns två guldpris och två guldmarknader. #freegold
You walk up to the bar and order a beer for $5.00us. The bartender looks at you and says, why do you pay that price for beer? There are drops of beer right there on the bar, which you can have for nothing!
You say, “there aren’t nearly enough drops of beer on the bar to serve my purpose, and it would be way too much work to gather it all, even if enough drops were available. I have no use for drops, I need a full mug. I’ll just pay the $5.00, please.
Bra förklaring till hur vårt monetära system hänger ihop och hur jag tror det kommer utvecklas framöver.
The suspense is painful… like being trapped in some kind of interminable Vulcan Death Grip, or something…
- Western paper traders won’t bid up the paper (spot unallocated, GLD shares, futures, forwards, options, XAUUSD longs, swaps, leases, whatever) gold $price, while their technical analysis tells them gold’s in a bear market and headed for the S bend (or even just circling the bowl).
- Others buy physical, and they much prefer to do that on price weakness… but if the strength seems sustained then they seem to buy a little anyway, perhaps grudgingly, but certainly less so (at least by weight, if not $cost).
- The mines can’t feed more physical through the system reserves stream, while the $price is too weak and their costs to bring to market haven’t fallen at least as hard.
So we either need to see:
- something to make the paper traders think “gold” has escaped from the bear, so that (a) the Eastern physical buyers drain less weight from the system reserves, and (b) the miners can increase the physical coming through the market (i.e.: to see the quiet run on the fractionally-reserved gold banking system’s reserves stopped, even reversed).
- the physical system reserves will finally fall below a critical level, and the system will break when the next call comes for allocation or delivery.
Ultimately, either the price “goes up enough from here” to keep the wheels on the present system, meaning the physical bullion and paper derivative prices of gold continue trading in lock step because the markets perceive them as fungible, or the wheels fall off because the physical reserves, underpinning confidence in the fungibility across all these various products, were stripped out at bargain basement prices by unsophisticated-but-savvy value seekers. Leaving, quite obviously to all, only the prospect of cash settlement for all of these paper derivative products… yes, including fully-paid-up spot unallocated credits in the bullion bankers’ books and XAUwhatever longs in the, somewhat huge, forex market.
Will the market then proceed to bid up the price of these paper derivative products, in lock step with the price of physical bullion? Or are they more likely to avoid the foul-smelling paper that they find trying to make its way back through the S bend, while instead embracing the real deal?
The trouble with any fiat currency system is, by definition, the holders of credits in the system are owed something later by someone — which, unavoidably, implies somewhere in the system a corresponding debt must be owed. If all will primarily hoard currency credits as savings, someone or another must be in an awful lot of debt.
Intressant. Vad är den hemliga ingrediensen månne? Guld.
Euro Becomes the Port in a Storm
As Central Banks Mull Pullback of Easy Money, Investors Turn to Relatively Stable European Currency
The euro is emerging as an unlikely oasis in the latest bout of market turmoil.
Assets ranging from Japanese stocks to emerging-market bonds to U.S. Treasurys have slumped this spring, as investors brace for the possible pullback from easy-money policies by the world’s major central banks. But the euro has largely avoided the volatile trading that has whipsawed other currencies, including the dollar and the Japanese yen, gaining about 4% against the greenback over the past four weeks to trade late Friday at $1.3345, near a four-month high.
It is a dramatic reversal for a currency that frequently has been at the center of global market turmoil in the past few years. Investors had put on record bets that the euro would fall, fueled by Europe’s economic slump and questions about the long-term viability of the currency union.
Mer här: online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324049504578545601046075438.html
“The euro, probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state. Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of gold five hundred years ago – that it was made for men and that it had its value by them – applies very well to the euro.”
Läs mer: – FOFOA EURO GOLD
In life, all things have an inverse. Good is a derivative of bad; beautiful of ugly; hard of soft; light of dark.
Without the presence of a competing measure, a relative benchmark, it is impossible to properly appreciate anything.
The current quoted gold price is a function of supply and demand in the market for gold-denominated credit. Today you can buy gold-the-reserve-asset-in-strictly-limited-supply, for approximately the same $price demand places on its derivative… infinitely-available gold-denominated-credit from the nice people of the COMEX and LBMA.
The anomaly is a lack of distinction between the asset and its credit derivative – they are treated as equivalents by all but a few market participants. Gold owed is considered equivalent to gold owned.
Debt is the same as equity?
As the underlying asset reserve base is progressively drained from the current pricing system, this perception of equivalency cannot continue indefinitely. At the point of divergence, physical gold will finally be free to find its own distinct equilibrium price in the market… with gold-denominated credit also free to find its own. Beyond this point of divergence, it may become apparent to all that derivatives cannot really perform as hoped. Demand for them may wane. Prices in the two markets may cease to be approximately equivalent.
Physical gold may return to being properly appreciated as the prime wealth reserve asset that it always was. Gold-denominated credit may no longer be worth the paper it’s written on.
Bill Gross pratar om vad som gör en famgångsrik investerare; förmågan att anpassa sig till förändring. Han ser också att den tid och förutsättningar som varit är på väg att ändras. Vad ser han i framtiden? Hur kommer han att förändra sig?
“But let me admit something. There is not a Bond King or a Stock King or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, yeah – me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period of time, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience. Since the early 1970s when the dollar was released from gold and credit began its incredible, liquefying, total return journey to the present day, an investor that took marginal risk, levered it wisely and was conveniently sheltered from periodic bouts of deleveraging or asset withdrawals could, and in some cases, was rewarded with the crown of “greatness.” Perhaps, however, it was the epoch that made the man as opposed to the man that made the epoch.”